Aim: Sample Population Estimation&Forecast
Statistics: Descriptive Statistics & Inferential Statistics
1, Descriptive Statistics
1.1, Central Tendency
Mode
Median
Mean: arithmetic mean, geometric mean, weighted mean
1.2, Dispersion & Relative Dispersion
Range
MAD(mean absolute deviation)
Variance--risk
1.3, Symmetry--skewness
1.4, Kurtosis
2, Inferential Statistics
2.0, Probability Concept--An excellent mathematic tool for Statistics
l Conditional, unconditional, joint probability, Addition Rule, Independent Events
l Probability Distribution & Probability Function
Binomial Distribution
Uniform Distribution
Normal Distribution
Lognormal Distribution
2.1 Estimation With Confidence --The development of descriptive statistics
z-statistic, t-statistic, -statistic
2.2 Hypothesis Testing
--A test of validity of financial assertion with the help of probability distribution
2.3 Forecasting
2.4 The Estimation & Forecast Between Variables
CFA level I focus on the estimation and forecast of linear regression
3, Extension in Finance
Case A, arithmetic mean, geometric mean
dilemma of return
100----200-----100 first year:100% second year:-50%
compute 1:
compute 2:
Case B, Normal Distribution vs. Lognormal Distribution |
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